prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 14 Tennessee 28 39.4, 32 Houston 22 20.4
65% 18 Atlanta 29 29.1, 27 Cincinnati 27 23.6
64% 1 Chicago 41 30.9, 30 San Francisco 10 24.8
63% 6 Green Bay 31 30.6, 23 Arizona 14 26.3
62% 9 Kansas City 35 30.9, 26 Seattle 28 27.3
60% 12 Baltimore 35 29.1, 17 New Orleans 22 26.7
57% 8 New York Giants 17 26.7, 19 Tampa Bay 3 25.2
55% 2 San Diego 38 30.1, 7 St. Louis 24 29.1
47% 10 Dallas 35 26.2, 15 Carolina 14 26.8
43% 28 Oakland 20 27.4, 13 Pittsburgh 13 29.0
38% 22 New England 31 26.6, 11 Minnesota 7 31.0
35% 24 Jacksonville 13 24.4, 4 Philadelphia 6 30.2
35% 20 Indianapolis 34 26.6, 5 Denver 31 32.2
30% 31 Cleveland 20 21.9, 21 New York Jets 13 31.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.07 8 0.78 0 0.00 1 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 8.8 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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