prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
75% 1 San Diego 49 33.5, 29 Cincinnati 41 23.9
68% 10 Dallas 27 32.4, 30 Arizona 10 25.0
61% 8 Philadelphia 27 30.3, 18 Washington 3 27.0
60% 20 Indianapolis 17 30.3, 27 Buffalo 16 27.7
60% 14 Seattle 24 30.8, 25 St. Louis 22 28.5
57% 12 Baltimore 27 28.2, 17 Tennessee 26 26.6
53% 15 Chicago 38 27.1, 19 New York Giants 20 26.5
52% 3 Miami 13 30.0, 2 Kansas City 10 29.6
49% 4 Green Bay 23 28.2, 22 Minnesota 17 28.5
48% 26 Carolina 24 26.2, 16 Tampa Bay 10 26.7
44% 21 Pittsburgh 38 27.4, 11 New Orleans 31 28.7
40% 28 San Francisco 19 28.1, 9 Detroit 13 31.0
39% 23 Denver 17 26.8, 6 Oakland 13 30.3
38% 24 New York Jets 17 25.1, 5 New England 14 29.1
20% 31 Cleveland 17 18.2, 13 Atlanta 13 33.1
16% 32 Houston 13 18.3, 7 Jacksonville 10 37.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.13 5 0.64 2 0.65 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 9.9 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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