2006 Week 13 (30 Nov - 4 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 59%  16 New England             28 28.4,    20 Detroit                 21 26.2
 59%   2 Chicago                 23 29.8,    25 Minnesota               13 27.6
 58%   8 San Diego               24 30.1,    26 Buffalo                 21 28.2
 56%  22 Philadelphia            27 28.5,    21 Carolina                24 27.2
 56%   4 Dallas                  23 28.1,    10 New York Giants         20 26.8
 53%  17 New Orleans             34 31.0,    28 San Francisco           10 30.4
 52%   6 Pittsburgh              20 28.1,     9 Tampa Bay                3 27.7

 43%   3 Seattle                 23 27.7,    13 Denver                  20 29.1
 39%  29 Atlanta                 24 29.0,     1 Washington              14 32.4
 38%  27 Tennessee               20 28.0,     7 Indianapolis            17 31.7
 38%  24 Jacksonville            24 24.7,     5 Miami                   10 28.6
 38%  23 New York Jets           38 25.7,    12 Green Bay               10 29.4
 38%  19 Arizona                 34 27.4,    15 St. Louis               20 31.6
 36%  31 Cleveland               31 24.7,    11 Kansas City             28 29.8
 33%  30 Cincinnati              13 26.3,    14 Baltimore                7 33.7
 22%  32 Houston                 23 19.7,    18 Oakland                 14 36.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                8 1.56   7 0.00   1 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   7   9.7 0.72

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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