prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 1 Pittsburgh 27 35.6, 31 Cleveland 7 19.0
66% 26 Tennessee 26 32.3, 32 Houston 20 25.8
62% 15 Minnesota 30 31.8, 29 Detroit 20 27.9
60% 2 Jacksonville 44 31.7, 6 Indianapolis 17 29.0
58% 8 Philadelphia 21 28.7, 9 Washington 19 26.9
49% 25 Green Bay 30 29.9, 22 San Francisco 19 30.2
49% 23 Miami 21 28.5, 14 New England 0 28.8
49% 10 Baltimore 20 29.3, 19 Kansas City 10 29.6
47% 20 Atlanta 17 27.3, 17 Tampa Bay 6 28.1
41% 7 San Diego 48 30.3, 4 Denver 20 32.2
40% 11 Arizona 27 27.8, 16 Seattle 21 30.4
39% 24 New Orleans 42 26.4, 3 Dallas 17 29.7
39% 18 Chicago 42 26.9, 13 St. Louis 27 30.3
38% 30 Buffalo 31 26.8, 5 New York Jets 13 31.0
38% 27 New York Giants 27 25.5, 12 Carolina 13 29.2
37% 28 Cincinnati 27 25.7, 21 Oakland 10 31.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.26 8 0.60 0 0.00 1 1.25 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 5 9.6 0.52
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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