prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 18 Baltimore 27 32.6, 31 Cleveland 17 19.0
76% 21 New England 40 37.5, 32 Houston 7 22.9
62% 7 Denver 37 31.8, 25 Arizona 20 27.4
61% 8 Indianapolis 34 32.0, 26 Cincinnati 16 29.2
59% 20 Green Bay 17 29.1, 19 Detroit 9 27.2
58% 11 Washington 16 29.9, 12 New Orleans 10 28.3
57% 3 Philadelphia 36 29.6, 16 New York Giants 22 28.0
56% 2 Dallas 38 30.1, 13 Atlanta 28 28.9
53% 30 Buffalo 28 27.7, 27 Miami 0 27.0
52% 5 Pittsburgh 37 28.4, 24 Carolina 3 28.0
52% 4 St. Louis 20 30.4, 23 Oakland 0 30.0
49% 6 San Diego 20 31.0, 22 Kansas City 9 31.2
45% 10 Chicago 34 26.0, 14 Tampa Bay 31 27.4
42% 28 Tennessee 24 28.7, 17 Jacksonville 17 30.5
40% 15 New York Jets 26 28.0, 9 Minnesota 13 31.1
37% 29 San Francisco 24 26.4, 1 Seattle 14 31.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.27 4 0.81 2 1.30 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 9.5 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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