2006 Week 16 (21-25 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 65%   1 Chicago                 26 30.5,    27 Detroit                 21 24.7
 64%  14 Denver                  24 32.1,    28 Cincinnati              23 26.9
 61%  21 Tampa Bay               22 29.3,    31 Cleveland                7 24.9
 59%  12 New York Jets           13 27.6,    29 Miami                   10 25.4
 56%  24 Arizona                 26 29.8,    30 San Francisco           20 28.5
 56%  20 St. Louis               37 31.1,    10 Washington              31 29.6
 52%  15 Green Bay                9 30.3,     9 Minnesota                7 29.8

 47%  25 Carolina                10 29.9,    23 Atlanta                  3 30.7
 44%  22 Kansas City             20 29.6,    19 Oakland                  9 31.1
 44%   6 New England             24 28.3,     8 Jacksonville            21 29.6
 44%   4 San Diego               20 29.3,     2 Seattle                 17 30.5
 43%  18 New Orleans             30 28.3,    11 New York Giants          7 29.8
 41%  17 Baltimore               31 27.9,     7 Pittsburgh               7 30.2
 40%  26 Tennessee               30 28.0,    16 Buffalo                 29 30.4
 40%  13 Philadelphia            23 26.2,     3 Dallas                   7 28.8
 24%  32 Houston                 27 24.4,     5 Indianapolis            24 36.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               12 0.59   3 1.58   1 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   7   9.5 0.74

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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