2007 Week 1 (6-10 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 67%   2 Pittsburgh              34 34.6,    31 Cleveland                7 18.9
 62%   5 Dallas                  45 27.9,    22 New York Giants         35 18.4
 61%   6 Indianapolis            41 33.2,    19 New Orleans             10 25.3
 60%   3 San Diego               14 28.4,     9 Chicago                  3 22.7
 59%  10 Seattle                 20 24.1,    18 Tampa Bay                6 18.8
 55%  29 San Francisco           20 26.8,    28 Arizona                 17 24.1
 53%  20 Washington              16 24.8,    14 Miami                   13 23.3
 52%  27 Green Bay               16 24.3,    23 Philadelphia            13 23.5
 52%  16 Denver                  15 22.6,    25 Buffalo                 14 21.7
 52%   1 New England             38 22.5,    11 New York Jets           14 21.3

 49%  26 Minnesota               24 25.4,    15 Atlanta                  3 26.0
 49%  24 Detroit                 36 21.6,    30 Oakland                 21 22.2
 46%  13 Cincinnati              27 21.1,     7 Baltimore               20 23.2
 41%  17 Carolina                27 20.7,    12 St. Louis               13 25.6
 40%  21 Tennessee               13 20.7,     8 Jacksonville            10 28.3
 29%  32 Houston                 20 19.0,     4 Kansas City              3 39.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               11 1.18   4 1.20   1 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  10   9.2 1.09

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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