prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 12 Atlanta 26 36.2, 32 Houston 16 18.4
76% 2 Dallas 35 30.2, 22 St. Louis 7 18.0
65% 4 Indianapolis 38 27.9, 13 Denver 20 21.6
64% 1 New England 34 27.4, 18 Cincinnati 13 21.7
58% 10 Seattle 23 26.9, 24 San Francisco 3 25.2
54% 5 Tampa Bay 20 19.5, 20 Carolina 7 18.6
50% 28 New York Giants 16 23.9, 26 Philadelphia 3 23.9
46% 23 Detroit 37 23.0, 16 Chicago 27 23.8
41% 11 Green Bay 23 19.9, 17 Minnesota 16 22.3
38% 29 Buffalo 17 19.0, 15 New York Jets 14 22.8
36% 19 Kansas City 30 20.5, 7 San Diego 16 25.1
33% 25 Arizona 21 22.1, 3 Pittsburgh 14 28.4
30% 30 Oakland 35 18.5, 21 Miami 17 27.6
25% 31 Cleveland 27 20.5, 6 Baltimore 13 30.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.73 6 0.51 2 0.66 1 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 6 9.0 0.67
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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