prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 5 Jacksonville 37 37.1, 31 Houston 17 15.4
71% 7 San Diego 28 30.0, 29 Oakland 14 20.9
71% 6 Baltimore 22 27.7, 23 St. Louis 3 19.5
62% 15 Kansas City 27 25.8, 22 Cincinnati 20 21.6
61% 10 Green Bay 17 25.5, 9 Washington 14 22.2
59% 11 Tampa Bay 13 22.7, 8 Tennessee 10 20.4
43% 1 New England 48 24.7, 3 Dallas 27 26.3
41% 19 Carolina 25 22.4, 14 Arizona 10 24.4
39% 21 New York Giants 31 23.3, 17 Atlanta 10 26.5
38% 16 Minnesota 34 19.5, 12 Chicago 31 23.6
37% 24 Philadelphia 16 22.3, 20 New York Jets 9 27.0
33% 32 Cleveland 41 23.5, 25 Miami 31 30.9
31% 30 New Orleans 28 20.2, 13 Seattle 17 28.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.57 7 0.45 2 1.41 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 6 8.5 0.71
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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