prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
75% 7 Tennessee 38 34.0, 32 Houston 36 22.7
69% 9 Seattle 33 26.8, 25 St. Louis 6 19.4
67% 3 Dallas 24 27.7, 18 Minnesota 14 20.8
66% 1 New England 49 31.1, 23 Miami 28 24.6
62% 19 New York Giants 33 27.6, 24 San Francisco 15 23.1
62% 14 Cincinnati 38 26.2, 28 New York Jets 31 21.9
61% 12 Washington 21 25.5, 15 Arizona 19 22.1
59% 2 Indianapolis 29 25.3, 13 Jacksonville 7 23.0
58% 8 Kansas City 12 25.3, 29 Oakland 10 23.3
48% 30 New Orleans 22 24.6, 21 Atlanta 16 25.0
44% 27 Detroit 23 21.6, 10 Tampa Bay 16 23.0
43% 22 Denver 31 23.0, 4 Pittsburgh 28 24.4
40% 26 Buffalo 19 20.5, 5 Baltimore 14 23.3
39% 17 Chicago 19 19.2, 11 Philadelphia 16 23.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.71 8 1.18 1 1.33 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 8.7 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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