2007 Week 8 (28-29 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 82%   8 San Diego               35 39.7,    32 Houston                 10 21.5
 76%   1 New England             52 33.0,    12 Washington               7 20.2
 67%  11 Tennessee               13 26.9,    26 Oakland                  9 20.1
 63%   2 Indianapolis            31 28.9,    20 Carolina                 7 24.3
 61%   3 Pittsburgh              24 26.1,    13 Cincinnati              13 23.0

 45%  21 New York Giants         13 25.5,    27 Miami                   10 26.7
 41%  29 New Orleans             31 24.3,    30 San Francisco           10 26.6
 41%   9 Philadelphia            23 22.5,    16 Minnesota               16 24.5
 40%  14 Green Bay               19 23.4,    22 Denver                  13 25.9
 37%  28 Buffalo                 13 21.8,    23 New York Jets            3 26.4
 37%  24 Detroit                 16 21.8,    18 Chicago                  7 26.2
 37%  19 Jacksonville            24 17.2,     6 Tampa Bay               23 23.1
 23%  31 Cleveland               27 19.9,    25 St. Louis               20 33.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 0.00   6 0.79   2 0.65   1 1.22   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  13   5   8.5 0.59

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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