prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
71% 3 Dallas 28 30.3, 26 Washington 23 21.9
70% 2 Indianapolis 13 31.4, 9 Kansas City 10 23.0
66% 14 Philadelphia 17 27.5, 28 Miami 7 21.0
66% 1 New England 56 30.1, 22 Buffalo 10 23.6
64% 16 Minnesota 29 26.1, 24 Oakland 22 21.0
64% 13 Jacksonville 24 28.8, 23 San Diego 17 23.8
63% 7 Seattle 30 26.8, 19 Chicago 23 21.4
63% 5 Green Bay 31 26.2, 12 Carolina 17 21.8
54% 29 Denver 34 25.0, 18 Tennessee 20 24.1
47% 27 New York Jets 19 24.7, 6 Pittsburgh 16 25.4
47% 25 St. Louis 13 24.7, 30 San Francisco 9 25.3
45% 15 Arizona 35 25.4, 17 Cincinnati 27 26.3
45% 11 Tampa Bay 31 22.3, 21 Atlanta 7 23.4
40% 8 New York Giants 16 24.9, 10 Detroit 10 27.1
30% 32 Houston 23 27.5, 20 New Orleans 10 36.1
19% 31 Cleveland 33 19.4, 4 Baltimore 30 37.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.30 7 1.54 2 0.71 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.1 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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