2007 Week 14 (6-10 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 71%   1 New England             34 30.6,     4 Pittsburgh              13 21.8
 67%   7 Green Bay               38 29.7,    26 Oakland                  7 23.1
 63%  12 Jacksonville            37 26.8,    17 Carolina                 6 22.3
 62%  24 Buffalo                 38 27.5,    30 Miami                   17 23.1
 62%  11 Seattle                 42 30.2,    14 Arizona                 21 25.9
 61%  27 Denver                  41 28.7,    23 Kansas City              7 25.8
 58%   3 Dallas                  28 28.4,    15 Detroit                 27 26.8
 54%  28 Washington              24 25.6,    13 Chicago                 16 24.7
 54%  25 Cincinnati              19 27.3,    22 St. Louis               10 26.5
 52%   8 Minnesota               27 26.9,    29 San Francisco            7 26.6

 47%   2 Indianapolis            44 24.6,     6 Baltimore               20 25.3
 45%   9 San Diego               23 25.7,    18 Tennessee               17 26.8
 40%  19 New Orleans             34 24.8,    21 Atlanta                 14 27.3
 37%  16 New York Giants         16 22.9,    10 Philadelphia            13 27.9
 28%  32 Houston                 28 24.5,     5 Tampa Bay               14 34.9
 24%  31 Cleveland               24 22.4,    20 New York Jets           18 35.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 1.04   6 1.32   3 0.46   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  10   9.8 1.02

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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