2007 Week 15 (13-17 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 76%   1 New England             20 34.6,    28 New York Jets           10 20.2
 67%   4 Minnesota               20 28.6,    18 Chicago                 13 22.2
 66%   7 Tampa Bay               37 28.4,    23 Atlanta                  3 21.7
 66%   2 Indianapolis            21 30.6,    29 Oakland                 14 24.0
 62%  16 San Diego               51 29.5,    21 Detroit                 14 25.4
 60%  14 New Orleans             31 29.5,    15 Arizona                 24 27.1
 58%  19 Carolina                13 27.7,    12 Seattle                 10 25.7
 55%  30 San Francisco           20 27.3,    22 Cincinnati              13 26.2
 55%  25 Miami                   22 24.7,    13 Baltimore               16 23.4
 52%   3 Green Bay               33 27.7,    24 St. Louis               14 27.1

 40%   9 Tennessee               26 24.7,    17 Kansas City             17 27.3
 39%  31 Cleveland                8 27.5,    26 Buffalo                  0 31.3
 38%   8 Jacksonville            29 22.5,     5 Pittsburgh              22 26.4
 36%  27 Washington              22 24.1,    10 New York Giants         10 29.2
 36%  11 Philadelphia            10 23.7,     6 Dallas                   6 28.7
 33%  32 Houston                 31 28.4,    20 Denver                  13 36.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                6 1.47   9 0.69   1 1.31   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  10  10.0 1.00

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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