prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 2 Indianapolis 38 41.8, 32 Houston 15 21.1
76% 19 Cincinnati 19 34.7, 31 Cleveland 14 23.4
76% 1 New England 28 34.4, 27 Miami 7 21.2
74% 6 Jacksonville 49 30.2, 30 Oakland 11 20.4
67% 12 Tennessee 10 28.9, 26 New York Jets 6 21.9
65% 7 San Diego 23 31.6, 23 Denver 3 25.6
61% 11 Seattle 27 27.5, 10 Baltimore 6 24.1
60% 15 Arizona 30 27.2, 21 Atlanta 27 24.5
60% 3 Dallas 20 28.1, 24 Carolina 13 25.1
48% 29 Detroit 25 27.2, 18 Kansas City 20 27.6
48% 5 Pittsburgh 41 24.8, 20 St. Louis 24 25.2
46% 16 Chicago 35 26.3, 4 Green Bay 7 27.1
43% 17 New York Giants 38 24.1, 25 Buffalo 21 25.7
42% 13 Philadelphia 38 25.5, 14 New Orleans 23 27.1
41% 28 San Francisco 21 22.9, 8 Tampa Bay 19 25.0
33% 22 Washington 32 23.7, 9 Minnesota 21 30.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.26 5 1.25 3 1.33 1 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.2 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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