prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
70% 4 Green Bay 34 32.0, 23 Detroit 13 23.9
67% 8 Philadelphia 17 28.3, 24 Buffalo 9 21.5
62% 1 New England 38 28.8, 11 New York Giants 35 24.9
61% 14 Arizona 48 28.3, 20 St. Louis 19 25.2
60% 18 Chicago 33 27.4, 15 New Orleans 25 25.1
60% 13 Baltimore 27 26.1, 10 Pittsburgh 21 23.1
59% 21 New York Jets 13 26.9, 17 Kansas City 10 24.5
56% 12 San Diego 30 28.3, 30 Oakland 17 27.0
54% 22 Denver 22 28.3, 9 Minnesota 19 27.4
49% 19 Atlanta 44 27.5, 7 Seattle 41 27.8
40% 26 Cincinnati 38 23.7, 29 Miami 25 26.5
40% 25 Washington 27 25.5, 3 Dallas 6 28.0
39% 31 Cleveland 20 26.1, 28 San Francisco 7 29.9
33% 27 Carolina 31 20.3, 6 Tampa Bay 23 28.0
31% 16 Tennessee 16 22.1, 2 Indianapolis 10 30.1
25% 32 Houston 42 24.9, 5 Jacksonville 28 36.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.18 9 0.87 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 9.9 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net