2008 Week 1 (4-8 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 69%   3 Pittsburgh              38 37.8,    32 Houston                 17 19.0
 65%   1 New England             17 34.5,    18 Kansas City             10 20.3
 63%   6 Dallas                  28 34.8,    31 Cleveland               10 23.1
 61%   8 New York Giants         16 29.2,    26 Washington               7 21.0
 60%  10 Philadelphia            38 27.0,    29 St. Louis                3 19.3
 60%   5 Green Bay               24 28.1,    11 Minnesota               19 21.8
 57%  16 Baltimore               17 23.6,    19 Cincinnati              10 19.3
 54%  21 Atlanta                 34 25.7,    20 Detroit                 21 23.6
 52%  14 Tennessee               17 22.5,     7 Jacksonville            10 21.6
 52%  12 Arizona                 23 24.4,    23 San Francisco           13 23.3
 51%  17 New Orleans             24 24.1,    13 Tampa Bay               20 23.3
 50%  24 Denver                  41 24.5,    30 Oakland                 14 24.4

 46%  22 Buffalo                 34 22.7,     9 Seattle                 10 24.7
 45%  28 New York Jets           20 19.6,    25 Miami                   14 22.7
 38%  15 Chicago                 29 19.3,     2 Indianapolis            13 29.3
 37%  27 Carolina                26 18.5,     4 San Diego               24 29.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                9 1.44   7 1.13   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  12   9.3 1.29

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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