prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 14 Jacksonville 30 34.1, 31 Houston 27 19.3
63% 7 Tennessee 30 23.9, 15 Minnesota 17 19.1
61% 13 San Diego 28 28.6, 28 Oakland 18 25.1
60% 9 Pittsburgh 23 20.3, 8 Baltimore 20 17.6
59% 16 Buffalo 31 25.9, 29 St. Louis 14 23.7
55% 17 Tampa Bay 30 24.2, 10 Green Bay 21 23.0
53% 5 Chicago 24 21.4, 3 Philadelphia 20 20.6
52% 22 New York Jets 56 23.4, 11 Arizona 35 23.0
52% 21 Carolina 24 22.8, 12 Atlanta 9 22.4
49% 24 New Orleans 31 25.8, 20 San Francisco 17 26.0
46% 27 Kansas City 33 25.6, 18 Denver 19 26.4
24% 32 Cleveland 20 18.7, 26 Cincinnati 12 30.3
23% 25 Washington 26 18.4, 2 Dallas 24 30.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.33 3 1.63 3 0.43 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 9 7.9 1.14
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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