prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 1 New England 23 33.9, 28 St. Louis 16 21.6
75% 7 New York Jets 28 30.1, 29 Kansas City 24 19.0
70% 15 Baltimore 29 27.5, 30 Oakland 10 17.8
66% 2 Dallas 13 27.8, 16 Tampa Bay 9 21.3
65% 5 Tennessee 31 27.0, 19 Indianapolis 21 20.9
63% 6 Philadelphia 27 26.1, 17 Atlanta 14 21.4
62% 8 Carolina 27 28.4, 13 Arizona 23 24.4
56% 24 Miami 25 23.6, 21 Buffalo 16 22.2
51% 18 New Orleans 37 28.6, 10 San Diego 32 28.4
48% 22 Washington 25 24.6, 27 Detroit 17 25.1
41% 25 Seattle 34 23.7, 23 San Francisco 13 25.9
37% 12 New York Giants 21 20.8, 4 Pittsburgh 14 25.8
33% 32 Houston 35 26.5, 26 Cincinnati 6 33.5
21% 31 Cleveland 23 19.0, 9 Jacksonville 17 34.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.92 7 1.10 3 0.87 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.0 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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