prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 23 Minnesota 28 38.0, 32 Houston 21 23.5
71% 7 Baltimore 37 29.7, 31 Cleveland 27 19.3
69% 8 Chicago 27 29.5, 27 Detroit 23 21.8
60% 20 Atlanta 24 25.8, 30 Oakland 0 23.2
60% 12 Tampa Bay 30 24.8, 29 Kansas City 27 22.2
60% 4 New York Giants 35 26.7, 6 Dallas 14 24.4
60% 3 Tennessee 19 25.8, 2 Green Bay 16 23.5
55% 1 Philadelphia 26 25.9, 21 Seattle 7 24.8
49% 15 Arizona 34 26.9, 25 St. Louis 13 27.2
48% 17 Indianapolis 18 27.0, 5 New England 15 27.4
45% 14 Pittsburgh 23 21.5, 19 Washington 6 22.6
45% 10 New York Jets 26 25.0, 18 Buffalo 17 26.3
41% 26 Cincinnati 21 24.1, 9 Jacksonville 19 26.2
38% 24 Miami 26 22.9, 22 Denver 17 26.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.88 2 0.76 2 1.35 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 8.5 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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