prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 12 Indianapolis 33 38.9, 32 Houston 27 21.8
68% 10 Carolina 31 28.8, 26 Detroit 22 21.3
68% 2 Green Bay 37 30.6, 20 Chicago 3 23.0
66% 22 Miami 17 27.1, 30 Oakland 15 19.8
62% 23 San Francisco 35 28.3, 27 St. Louis 16 24.4
62% 13 Tampa Bay 19 26.5, 18 Minnesota 13 22.6
62% 5 Pittsburgh 11 27.6, 14 San Diego 10 23.6
59% 17 New Orleans 30 28.8, 29 Kansas City 20 26.8
58% 16 New York Giants 30 25.0, 11 Baltimore 10 23.3
58% 7 Dallas 14 25.4, 24 Washington 10 23.7
50% 15 Arizona 26 28.3, 25 Seattle 20 28.3
40% 3 New York Jets 34 25.8, 4 New England 31 28.1
38% 6 Tennessee 24 23.1, 1 Jacksonville 14 27.0
37% 28 Cincinnati 13 22.6, 9 Philadelphia 13 27.0
36% 19 Denver 24 23.7, 8 Atlanta 20 28.9
24% 31 Cleveland 29 21.5, 21 Buffalo 27 34.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.41 9 1.04 2 0.64 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.2 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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