prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
71% 1 Dallas 35 31.0, 25 San Francisco 22 22.6
69% 7 Pittsburgh 27 27.5, 27 Cincinnati 10 19.8
60% 15 Tampa Bay 38 25.6, 28 Detroit 20 23.0
58% 2 New England 48 26.4, 21 Miami 28 24.7
54% 16 Baltimore 36 23.5, 6 Philadelphia 7 22.5
53% 13 Chicago 27 26.3, 26 St. Louis 3 25.6
53% 9 New Orleans 51 28.3, 3 Green Bay 29 27.7
50% 20 Atlanta 45 24.3, 8 Carolina 28 24.2
49% 23 Buffalo 54 26.7, 29 Kansas City 31 26.9
42% 22 Washington 20 23.4, 24 Seattle 17 25.1
41% 17 Indianapolis 23 26.7, 19 San Diego 20 28.9
41% 14 New York Giants 37 28.1, 11 Arizona 29 30.3
39% 5 New York Jets 34 22.7, 4 Tennessee 13 26.2
38% 18 Minnesota 30 22.8, 10 Jacksonville 12 27.0
37% 32 Houston 16 29.5, 31 Cleveland 6 33.9
30% 30 Oakland 31 20.6, 12 Denver 10 29.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.01 5 0.63 2 0.71 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 9.5 0.84
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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