prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
72% 3 Dallas 34 31.0, 25 Seattle 9 22.1
69% 17 Indianapolis 10 32.6, 31 Cleveland 6 23.7
65% 9 Philadelphia 48 29.5, 21 Arizona 20 23.8
64% 7 Tennessee 47 28.6, 28 Detroit 10 22.9
62% 10 Tampa Bay 23 28.1, 13 New Orleans 20 24.5
60% 14 Minnesota 34 27.2, 12 Chicago 14 24.8
59% 11 Baltimore 34 25.0, 26 Cincinnati 3 22.7
57% 5 New York Giants 23 25.9, 22 Washington 7 24.3
43% 24 Miami 16 24.2, 27 St. Louis 12 25.8
41% 29 Kansas City 20 23.8, 30 Oakland 13 26.0
41% 2 Carolina 35 24.9, 6 Green Bay 31 26.9
39% 20 Atlanta 22 25.1, 19 San Diego 16 28.2
37% 23 San Francisco 10 24.3, 16 Buffalo 3 28.9
37% 8 Pittsburgh 33 21.9, 1 New England 10 26.5
35% 18 Denver 34 23.3, 4 New York Jets 17 29.0
25% 32 Houston 30 24.9, 15 Jacksonville 17 35.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.85 8 0.78 2 0.68 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.1 0.79
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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