prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 6 Philadelphia 30 35.7, 31 Cleveland 10 21.0
70% 13 Indianapolis 31 31.1, 30 Detroit 21 22.9
67% 3 New York Jets 31 29.9, 25 Buffalo 27 22.3
66% 1 New England 49 28.8, 29 Oakland 26 22.2
63% 5 Chicago 27 29.3, 15 New Orleans 24 25.0
61% 19 Miami 14 26.9, 21 San Francisco 9 23.6
61% 11 Carolina 30 28.0, 20 Denver 10 24.5
60% 12 Atlanta 13 26.3, 16 Tampa Bay 10 23.6
58% 7 Dallas 20 26.1, 2 New York Giants 8 24.5
57% 24 Cincinnati 20 25.4, 23 Washington 13 24.0
54% 17 Jacksonville 20 26.9, 8 Green Bay 16 26.0
50% 10 Minnesota 35 29.6, 18 Arizona 14 29.5
47% 22 San Diego 22 26.9, 27 Kansas City 21 27.6
40% 26 Seattle 23 25.4, 28 St. Louis 20 27.9
37% 14 Pittsburgh 13 20.5, 4 Baltimore 9 25.0
24% 32 Houston 13 25.4, 9 Tennessee 12 36.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.21 8 1.37 2 0.65 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 10.0 1.21
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net