prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
70% 27 Oakland 27 36.0, 32 Houston 16 24.6
69% 1 New England 47 32.8, 22 Arizona 7 25.2
63% 29 Cincinnati 14 30.2, 31 Cleveland 0 25.3
61% 2 Tennessee 31 26.4, 3 Pittsburgh 14 22.6
60% 14 New Orleans 42 30.7, 30 Detroit 7 27.9
59% 12 Chicago 20 28.3, 10 Green Bay 17 26.0
59% 5 New York Giants 34 26.5, 4 Carolina 28 24.3
53% 20 San Francisco 17 26.0, 28 St. Louis 16 25.2
52% 18 Washington 10 23.9, 8 Philadelphia 3 23.5
50% 19 Miami 38 25.2, 26 Kansas City 31 25.1
48% 23 Seattle 13 25.8, 6 New York Jets 3 26.3
46% 9 Indianapolis 31 24.8, 16 Jacksonville 24 25.8
39% 24 Buffalo 30 24.4, 21 Denver 23 27.8
39% 11 Atlanta 24 25.7, 7 Minnesota 17 29.3
38% 25 San Diego 41 24.6, 17 Tampa Bay 24 28.7
38% 15 Baltimore 33 23.3, 13 Dallas 24 27.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.31 8 0.80 1 1.43 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.5 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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