14 Feb 2010: Average model rankings (NFL) for the 2009 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  2   1  5.9  4.0 New England               17  4   0  5.1  3.7 San Francisco           
  2  2   1  5.0  4.2 Baltimore                 18  9   0  6.3  3.2 New Orleans             
  3  3   1  5.4  4.0 Tennessee                 19  3   0  4.9  3.8 Buffalo                 
  4  5   1  5.7  3.9 Indianapolis              20  2   0  5.4  3.6 Atlanta                 
  5  2   1  6.0  3.7 San Diego                 21  2   0  5.4  3.5 Miami                   
  6  2   1  5.9  3.7 Minnesota                 22  3   0  4.9  3.7 Cleveland               
  7  3   0  5.6  3.7 Philadelphia              23  2   0  4.8  3.7 Washington              
  8  4   0  5.3  3.8 Pittsburgh                24  3   0  5.3  3.5 Chicago                 
  9  3   0  5.1  3.9 New York Jets             25  4   0  6.0  3.1 Arizona                 
 10  3   0  5.0  4.0 Carolina                  26  2   0  5.1  3.5 Kansas City             
 11  5   0  6.1  3.5 Green Bay                 27  2   0  5.2  3.4 Jacksonville            
 12  4   0  5.8  3.5 Houston                   28  2   0  5.3  3.4 Denver                  
 13  3   0  5.6  3.6 Dallas                    29  4   0  5.1  3.3 Seattle                 
 14  4   0  4.9  3.8 Tampa Bay                 30  1   0  4.5  3.6 Oakland                 
 15  4   0  4.9  3.8 Cincinnati                31  1   0  4.5  3.4 St. Louis               
 16  5   0  5.7  3.5 New York Giants           32  1  -1  5.2  2.8 Detroit                 

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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