prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
74% 11 New Orleans 45 35.4, 31 Detroit 27 19.9
72% 1 New England 25 30.1, 23 Buffalo 24 13.9
69% 5 Baltimore 38 26.5, 29 Kansas City 24 12.1
68% 21 Seattle 28 28.8, 32 St. Louis 0 15.7
66% 4 San Diego 24 27.8, 30 Oakland 20 17.0
65% 3 Indianapolis 14 26.6, 13 Jacksonville 12 16.2
64% 7 New York Giants 23 24.7, 26 Washington 17 14.8
62% 2 Pittsburgh 13 22.2, 6 Tennessee 10 14.5
61% 9 Green Bay 21 24.7, 14 Chicago 15 19.3
60% 18 Atlanta 19 22.5, 24 Miami 7 17.4
50% 15 Minnesota 34 20.3, 27 Cleveland 20 20.2
48% 12 New York Jets 24 22.0, 20 Houston 7 22.8
48% 8 Philadelphia 38 19.3, 16 Carolina 10 20.0
44% 10 Dallas 34 19.2, 19 Tampa Bay 21 21.7
42% 22 Denver 12 20.9, 25 Cincinnati 7 24.1
37% 28 San Francisco 20 19.6, 17 Arizona 16 27.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.37 9 1.38 2 1.37 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 9.9 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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