2009 Week 3 (27-28 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 80%   1 New Orleans             31 33.3,    24 San Francisco           17 18.8
 79%  14 Buffalo                 31 26.1,    32 St. Louis               14 13.5
 75%   7 New York Jets           56 25.4,    17 Arizona                 35 15.6
 67%   3 Pittsburgh              23 21.8,     4 Baltimore               20 16.4
 65%   6 San Diego               28 24.5,    29 Oakland                 18 19.5
 63%  21 Jacksonville            30 23.5,    19 Houston                 27 18.8
 63%  13 Chicago                 24 23.4,    10 Philadelphia            20 18.9
 63%  11 Tennessee               30 23.3,    12 Minnesota               17 18.9
 52%  25 Tampa Bay               30 23.9,    16 Green Bay               21 23.6

 40%  27 Carolina                24 18.9,    15 Atlanta                  9 21.4
 38%  28 Kansas City             33 19.7,    18 Denver                  19 22.9
 24%  30 Cleveland               20 13.4,    23 Cincinnati              12 23.4
 24%  26 Washington              26 15.8,     9 Dallas                  24 26.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 0.90   6 1.31   4 0.65   1 1.25   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  13   9   8.8 1.02

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net