prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 12 Chicago 48 35.0, 31 Detroit 24 14.0
81% 27 San Francisco 35 25.2, 32 St. Louis 0 11.3
79% 1 Indianapolis 34 25.2, 23 Seattle 17 11.6
71% 17 Houston 29 24.7, 30 Oakland 6 16.8
70% 5 Pittsburgh 38 25.6, 8 San Diego 28 18.1
67% 13 Minnesota 30 27.7, 15 Green Bay 23 22.2
67% 9 New York Giants 27 26.3, 28 Kansas City 16 21.0
62% 26 Washington 16 20.5, 20 Tampa Bay 13 17.0
62% 2 New Orleans 24 29.4, 3 New York Jets 10 26.2
61% 6 New England 27 23.7, 4 Baltimore 21 20.9
50% 25 Miami 38 19.0, 14 Buffalo 10 19.1
49% 19 Denver 17 25.2, 11 Dallas 10 25.4
46% 24 Cincinnati 23 17.9, 29 Cleveland 20 18.7
39% 21 Jacksonville 37 18.8, 7 Tennessee 17 21.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 6 1.32 3 1.36 2 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.2 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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