2009 Week 5 (11-12 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 86%   2 Pittsburgh              28 35.1,    31 Detroit                 20 16.2
 83%   7 New York Giants         44 28.8,    30 Oakland                  7 13.0
 82%  11 Minnesota               38 29.0,    32 St. Louis               10 14.8
 71%  13 Philadelphia            33 26.3,    23 Tampa Bay               14 18.4
 62%  26 Carolina                20 19.2,    27 Washington              17 15.9
 62%  12 Dallas                  26 24.6,    28 Kansas City             20 21.3
 59%  21 Arizona                 28 29.0,    17 Houston                 21 27.1
 55%  24 Seattle                 41 21.1,    15 Jacksonville             0 20.0
 55%  18 Miami                   31 20.3,     9 New York Jets           27 19.3
 55%   1 Indianapolis            31 21.8,    10 Tennessee                9 20.8

 40%  16 Atlanta                 45 17.1,    22 San Francisco           10 19.3
 38%  20 Denver                  20 20.9,     4 New England             17 24.7
 25%  29 Cleveland                6 15.7,    19 Buffalo                  3 24.6
 22%  25 Cincinnati              17 14.3,     5 Baltimore               14 26.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 1.40   3 1.08   3 0.45   3 1.20   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14  10   9.4 1.06

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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