prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
61% 3 Indianapolis 42 22.2, 30 St. Louis 6 16.1
60% 10 San Diego 37 23.0, 26 Kansas City 7 21.1
60% 4 Pittsburgh 27 22.4, 19 Minnesota 17 16.1
59% 25 Dallas 37 21.5, 24 Atlanta 21 18.3
59% 14 Houston 24 22.7, 27 San Francisco 21 17.9
59% 12 New York Jets 38 19.4, 31 Oakland 0 15.9
59% 1 New England 35 21.5, 22 Tampa Bay 7 17.9
55% 13 Green Bay 31 20.3, 23 Cleveland 3 19.4
53% 6 Philadelphia 27 17.8, 18 Washington 17 17.2
49% 16 Cincinnati 45 19.0, 11 Chicago 10 19.1
43% 21 New Orleans 46 21.5, 15 Miami 34 22.8
41% 17 Buffalo 20 14.3, 8 Carolina 9 18.9
35% 29 Arizona 24 19.9, 2 New York Giants 17 29.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.27 2 0.79 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 9 7.6 1.19
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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