prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
68% 8 San Diego 24 23.8, 30 Oakland 16 13.3
64% 2 Indianapolis 18 22.4, 26 San Francisco 14 14.2
61% 7 Baltimore 30 22.1, 28 Denver 7 15.2
60% 19 New Orleans 35 26.4, 25 Atlanta 27 21.6
59% 27 Chicago 30 19.5, 23 Cleveland 6 15.7
59% 6 Tennessee 30 19.6, 17 Jacksonville 13 14.8
59% 5 Philadelphia 40 21.1, 4 New York Giants 17 19.2
55% 22 Dallas 38 20.9, 9 Seattle 17 20.0
53% 10 Carolina 34 21.6, 29 Arizona 21 21.1
41% 18 Miami 30 16.6, 12 New York Jets 25 20.7
41% 15 Minnesota 38 19.8, 13 Green Bay 26 24.7
40% 31 St. Louis 17 19.3, 32 Detroit 10 21.3
40% 20 Houston 31 18.3, 14 Buffalo 10 20.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.03 3 1.55 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 9 7.8 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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