prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
63% 16 Seattle 32 25.6, 32 Detroit 20 16.9
63% 1 New England 27 24.1, 18 Miami 17 15.6
62% 3 Indianapolis 20 23.3, 17 Houston 17 17.1
60% 27 Atlanta 31 19.3, 22 Washington 17 16.7
60% 23 New Orleans 30 22.9, 9 Carolina 20 20.8
59% 24 Jacksonville 24 20.1, 25 Kansas City 21 16.6
59% 2 Pittsburgh 28 21.1, 29 Denver 10 17.3
56% 6 Tennessee 34 17.2, 20 San Francisco 27 16.1
51% 11 Cincinnati 17 17.6, 4 Baltimore 7 17.5
50% 14 Tampa Bay 38 20.4, 10 Green Bay 28 20.4
40% 28 Arizona 41 21.9, 15 Chicago 21 27.0
40% 8 San Diego 21 21.2, 7 New York Giants 20 23.5
39% 21 Dallas 20 18.9, 5 Philadelphia 16 24.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.36 4 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 10 7.6 1.31
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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