prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
66% 1 New England 31 25.1, 12 New York Jets 14 16.8
61% 11 Green Bay 30 23.7, 21 San Francisco 24 17.8
61% 7 New York Giants 34 24.6, 26 Atlanta 31 17.8
60% 8 San Diego 32 24.1, 29 Denver 3 20.4
59% 22 Jacksonville 18 19.6, 24 Buffalo 15 16.0
59% 15 Minnesota 35 22.7, 23 Seattle 9 18.9
59% 13 Dallas 7 21.4, 20 Washington 6 16.6
57% 28 Arizona 21 22.0, 31 St. Louis 13 21.1
57% 3 Philadelphia 24 21.1, 19 Chicago 20 19.7
51% 32 Detroit 38 17.5, 27 Cleveland 37 17.4
50% 4 Tennessee 20 20.1, 14 Houston 17 20.2
41% 30 Oakland 20 12.4, 9 Cincinnati 17 16.3
41% 18 Miami 24 16.5, 10 Carolina 17 20.8
40% 25 Kansas City 27 16.1, 2 Pittsburgh 24 17.9
40% 17 New Orleans 38 22.1, 16 Tampa Bay 7 23.9
40% 5 Indianapolis 17 16.1, 6 Baltimore 15 17.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.93 3 1.59 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.4 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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