2009 Week 13 (3-7 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 67%   8 Cincinnati              23 23.9,    32 Detroit                 13 15.2
 60%  29 Seattle                 20 19.6,    18 San Francisco           17 17.8
 60%  24 Chicago                 17 20.2,    30 St. Louis                9 15.1
 60%  13 Green Bay               27 20.1,     3 Baltimore               14 18.1
 59%  11 Carolina                16 19.0,    15 Tampa Bay                6 15.6
 59%  10 New York Giants         31 23.2,    17 Dallas                  24 19.2
 59%   5 Indianapolis            27 20.4,     7 Tennessee               17 16.6
 59%   4 San Diego               30 20.7,    27 Cleveland               23 16.6
 58%  23 Jacksonville            23 21.4,    16 Houston                 18 20.2
 57%  14 New Orleans             33 22.2,    21 Washington              30 21.2
 57%   6 Philadelphia            34 22.0,    22 Atlanta                  7 20.8

 43%  25 Arizona                 30 23.8,     9 Minnesota               17 24.7
 42%  12 New York Jets           19 17.5,    20 Buffalo                 13 18.7
 41%  26 Denver                  44 17.3,    28 Kansas City             13 19.8
 41%  19 Miami                   22 19.3,     1 New England             21 22.4
 26%  31 Oakland                 27  8.8,     2 Pittsburgh              24 20.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               13 1.18   2 1.58   1 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  11   9.6 1.14

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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