2009 Week 15 (10-14 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 62%   6 San Diego               27 22.7,    15 Cincinnati              24 16.6
 62%   5 Philadelphia            27 22.5,    19 San Francisco           13 16.0
 61%   2 Baltimore               31 20.4,    24 Chicago                  7 13.2
 60%  13 Houston                 16 21.9,    31 St. Louis               13 18.1
 60%  11 Carolina                26 19.6,     8 Minnesota                7 17.9
 60%   4 Indianapolis            35 20.2,    22 Jacksonville            31 18.0
 60%   3 Tennessee               27 21.9,    18 Miami                   24 15.7
 59%  26 Arizona                 31 26.1,    32 Detroit                 24 22.3
 59%   7 Pittsburgh              37 21.6,    10 Green Bay               36 18.4
 59%   1 New England             17 20.5,    20 Buffalo                 10 17.2
 54%   9 New York Giants         45 19.6,    23 Washington              12 18.9

 48%  14 Tampa Bay               24 17.4,    29 Seattle                  7 17.8
 41%  25 Atlanta                 10 17.0,    12 New York Jets            7 21.0
 41%  17 Dallas                  24 23.5,    16 New Orleans             17 27.1
 40%  21 Cleveland               41 14.9,    28 Kansas City             34 17.0
 38%  30 Oakland                 20 14.0,    27 Denver                  19 19.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               12 1.14   4 1.22   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  11   9.5 1.16

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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