2009 Week 16 (25-28 Dec) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 70%  19 San Francisco           20 24.1,    32 Detroit                  6 15.5
 70%   6 Philadelphia            30 24.0,    28 Denver                  27 16.1
 69%  25 Arizona                 31 23.8,    31 St. Louis               10 16.6
 66%  10 Green Bay               48 25.2,    29 Seattle                 10 17.7
 66%   2 New England             35 24.1,    20 Jacksonville             7 15.4
 60%  22 Cleveland               23 17.5,    30 Oakland                  9 12.4
 60%  14 Cincinnati              17 20.0,    27 Kansas City             10 15.4
 59%  21 Atlanta                 31 18.8,    18 Buffalo                  3 15.8
 56%   7 Pittsburgh              23 17.6,     1 Baltimore               20 16.5

 46%  16 Dallas                  17 18.6,    23 Washington               0 19.2
 46%  13 Houston                 27 20.9,    24 Miami                   20 21.5
 45%  26 Chicago                 36 19.5,    12 Minnesota               30 20.3
 41%   9 Tampa Bay               20 18.9,    17 New Orleans             17 22.3
 41%   8 Carolina                41 17.2,    11 New York Giants          9 20.3
 40%   5 San Diego               42 19.7,     3 Tennessee               17 21.8
 35%  15 New York Jets           29 15.5,     4 Indianapolis            15 22.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               10 0.69   5 1.19   1 1.43   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   9   9.8 0.92

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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