prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
65% 5 San Diego 23 23.1, 23 Washington 20 15.4
60% 22 Cleveland 23 18.7, 25 Jacksonville 17 16.2
60% 6 Green Bay 33 26.0, 20 Arizona 7 24.1
60% 2 Baltimore 21 18.4, 29 Oakland 13 12.3
59% 27 Chicago 37 21.9, 32 Detroit 23 19.1
59% 18 San Francisco 28 17.9, 31 St. Louis 6 15.0
59% 14 New York Jets 37 18.4, 13 Cincinnati 0 15.9
59% 10 Minnesota 44 22.9, 11 New York Giants 7 19.7
59% 8 Carolina 23 22.1, 19 New Orleans 10 18.9
59% 3 Tennessee 17 21.1, 30 Seattle 13 17.0
54% 15 Dallas 24 20.7, 7 Philadelphia 0 20.0
47% 9 Pittsburgh 30 18.3, 21 Miami 24 18.9
41% 28 Kansas City 44 17.4, 26 Denver 24 20.7
41% 24 Buffalo 30 16.3, 4 Indianapolis 7 19.4
41% 17 Atlanta 20 15.7, 12 Tampa Bay 10 18.6
41% 16 Houston 34 20.9, 1 New England 27 23.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 1.14 1 1.55 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 9.4 1.17
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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