2009 Postseason: Wild Card (9-10 Jan) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 60%  12 Dallas                  34 20.9,    10 Philadelphia            14 18.6
 51%   8 New York Jets           24 16.9,    18 Cincinnati              14 16.8

 41%   3 Baltimore               33 16.7,     1 New England             14 21.3
 40%  24 Arizona                 51 22.9,     7 Green Bay               45 24.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 0.87   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):   4   2   2.3 0.87

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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