prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
60% 24 Chicago 19 24.7, 32 Detroit 14 17.0
60% 3 Tennessee 38 21.3, 29 Oakland 13 10.8
60% 1 New England 38 23.1, 15 Cincinnati 24 15.1
58% 9 Pittsburgh 15 21.3, 20 Atlanta 9 16.4
57% 14 Tampa Bay 17 18.1, 22 Cleveland 14 13.6
55% 27 Jacksonville 24 20.5, 28 Denver 17 17.5
53% 25 Arizona 17 21.1, 31 St. Louis 13 19.3
53% 17 New Orleans 14 25.6, 7 Minnesota 9 23.9
53% 16 New York Giants 31 19.7, 10 Carolina 18 17.4
51% 30 Seattle 31 18.8, 18 San Francisco 6 18.2
51% 23 Washington 13 18.4, 13 Dallas 7 18.0
50% 12 Houston 34 21.5, 4 Indianapolis 24 21.6
48% 2 Baltimore 10 15.8, 8 New York Jets 9 16.8
47% 21 Miami 15 17.0, 19 Buffalo 10 19.1
46% 11 Green Bay 27 21.4, 6 Philadelphia 20 23.7
45% 26 Kansas City 21 19.2, 5 San Diego 14 22.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 1.26 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 8.7 1.26
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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