prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
60% 5 Green Bay 34 21.5, 21 Buffalo 7 14.1
59% 14 San Diego 38 22.5, 24 Jacksonville 13 17.4
59% 10 New Orleans 25 21.3, 30 San Francisco 22 16.2
58% 17 Atlanta 41 21.6, 25 Arizona 7 17.4
57% 11 Philadelphia 35 22.1, 31 Detroit 32 18.0
53% 15 Indianapolis 38 24.7, 6 New York Giants 14 23.3
51% 8 Houston 30 19.6, 13 Washington 27 19.0
50% 32 Oakland 16 14.5, 29 St. Louis 14 14.5
49% 16 Kansas City 16 16.3, 22 Cleveland 14 16.7
46% 28 Denver 31 18.7, 7 Seattle 14 20.9
46% 18 Tampa Bay 20 15.7, 23 Carolina 7 17.8
45% 26 Cincinnati 15 15.6, 2 Baltimore 10 18.6
44% 12 New York Jets 28 19.2, 3 New England 14 22.3
42% 27 Chicago 27 15.0, 20 Dallas 20 19.6
42% 19 Miami 14 14.2, 4 Minnesota 10 19.1
40% 9 Pittsburgh 19 15.6, 1 Tennessee 11 22.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 0.90 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 8.9 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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