2010 Week 3 (26-27 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 63%   9 Minnesota               24 25.5,    32 Detroit                 10 14.8
 60%  31 Arizona                 24 20.7,    30 Oakland                 23 17.7
 60%  24 Kansas City             31 18.8,    25 San Francisco           10 15.7
 60%   6 Indianapolis            27 23.8,    22 Denver                  13 20.9
 60%   3 New England             38 23.8,    26 Buffalo                 30 13.5
 59%   2 Baltimore               24 18.0,    21 Cleveland               17  9.8
 54%  28 St. Louis               30 16.7,    23 Washington              16 15.5
 54%  19 Philadelphia            28 21.2,    29 Jacksonville             3 20.2
 52%   1 Tennessee               29 21.1,    16 New York Giants         10 20.3

 44%   8 New York Jets           31 15.3,    11 Miami                   23 16.9
 41%  14 Pittsburgh              38 14.4,    12 Tampa Bay               13 16.9
 40%  27 Seattle                 27 20.1,     5 San Diego               20 23.2
 40%  20 Chicago                 20 20.2,     4 Green Bay               17 23.1
 40%  18 Dallas                  27 20.1,    15 Houston                 13 24.1
 40%  17 Cincinnati              20 15.3,    13 Carolina                 7 18.6
 40%   7 Atlanta                 27 18.6,    10 New Orleans             24 21.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               14 0.86   2 1.62   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   9   9.4 0.96

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net