prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
69% 3 Green Bay 28 29.6, 32 Detroit 26 16.1
67% 8 San Diego 41 29.9, 31 Arizona 10 19.7
60% 18 New Orleans 16 20.7, 13 Carolina 14 17.0
60% 12 Houston 31 20.7, 29 Oakland 24 18.0
60% 7 New York Jets 38 18.5, 26 Buffalo 14 15.5
60% 5 Atlanta 16 22.3, 30 San Francisco 14 12.6
60% 1 New England 41 22.6, 16 Miami 14 20.0
59% 19 New York Giants 17 21.2, 21 Chicago 3 16.9
52% 27 St. Louis 20 18.4, 24 Seattle 3 17.8
49% 23 Cleveland 23 15.6, 17 Cincinnati 20 15.8
41% 25 Washington 17 14.4, 11 Philadelphia 12 21.0
40% 28 Jacksonville 31 17.2, 6 Indianapolis 28 21.0
40% 22 Denver 26 14.6, 2 Tennessee 20 22.7
40% 4 Baltimore 17 13.7, 9 Pittsburgh 14 16.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.94 3 1.52 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 8.4 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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