prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
60% 2 Baltimore 31 20.3, 21 Denver 17 13.6
59% 7 Atlanta 20 18.4, 23 Cleveland 10 16.4
59% 6 Indianapolis 19 22.9, 19 Kansas City 9 16.7
59% 4 New York Jets 29 19.5, 10 Minnesota 20 15.4
58% 12 Philadelphia 27 19.1, 27 San Francisco 24 17.2
52% 32 Detroit 44 19.0, 26 St. Louis 6 18.5
48% 5 Tennessee 34 17.7, 16 Dallas 27 18.1
41% 30 Oakland 35 16.6, 1 San Diego 27 23.6
41% 24 Chicago 23 12.9, 14 Carolina 6 17.8
41% 15 New York Giants 34 20.6, 18 Houston 10 23.9
41% 11 Tampa Bay 24 14.1, 20 Cincinnati 21 16.4
40% 31 Arizona 30 22.7, 13 New Orleans 20 27.3
40% 28 Jacksonville 36 15.9, 25 Buffalo 26 18.4
40% 22 Washington 16 18.4, 8 Green Bay 13 21.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 0.74 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 6 8.1 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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