2010 Week 5 (10-11 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 60%   2 Baltimore               31 20.3,    21 Denver                  17 13.6
 59%   7 Atlanta                 20 18.4,    23 Cleveland               10 16.4
 59%   6 Indianapolis            19 22.9,    19 Kansas City              9 16.7
 59%   4 New York Jets           29 19.5,    10 Minnesota               20 15.4
 58%  12 Philadelphia            27 19.1,    27 San Francisco           24 17.2
 52%  32 Detroit                 44 19.0,    26 St. Louis                6 18.5

 48%   5 Tennessee               34 17.7,    16 Dallas                  27 18.1
 41%  30 Oakland                 35 16.6,     1 San Diego               27 23.6
 41%  24 Chicago                 23 12.9,    14 Carolina                 6 17.8
 41%  15 New York Giants         34 20.6,    18 Houston                 10 23.9
 41%  11 Tampa Bay               24 14.1,    20 Cincinnati              21 16.4
 40%  31 Arizona                 30 22.7,    13 New Orleans             20 27.3
 40%  28 Jacksonville            36 15.9,    25 Buffalo                 26 18.4
 40%  22 Washington              16 18.4,     8 Green Bay               13 21.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               14 0.74   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14   6   8.1 0.74

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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