prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
62% 3 Indianapolis 30 25.9, 20 Houston 17 19.6
61% 2 New England 28 25.0, 9 Minnesota 18 19.0
60% 25 San Francisco 24 20.5, 26 Denver 16 17.9
60% 13 New Orleans 20 20.2, 7 Pittsburgh 10 18.6
60% 5 San Diego 33 22.2, 1 Tennessee 25 19.6
59% 17 Kansas City 13 22.2, 27 Buffalo 10 16.8
54% 12 Tampa Bay 38 19.8, 30 Arizona 35 19.2
52% 31 Detroit 37 19.5, 22 Washington 25 19.2
51% 29 Oakland 33 17.5, 24 Seattle 3 17.3
40% 32 St. Louis 20 12.6, 11 Carolina 10 15.9
40% 28 Jacksonville 35 16.9, 19 Dallas 17 22.7
40% 15 Miami 22 17.7, 18 Cincinnati 14 19.5
40% 8 Green Bay 9 19.1, 6 New York Jets 0 21.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.11 2 1.63 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 9 7.6 1.19
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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