prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 8 San Diego 35 31.6, 29 Denver 14 20.0
90% 7 New Orleans 34 27.5, 27 Seattle 19 16.7
88% 11 New York Jets 30 26.8, 18 Houston 27 20.1
87% 9 Baltimore 37 22.7, 30 Carolina 13 15.2
85% 12 Atlanta 34 25.7, 32 St. Louis 17 17.5
81% 5 Pittsburgh 35 25.9, 14 Oakland 3 19.3
79% 19 Kansas City 31 28.3, 26 Arizona 13 23.5
75% 1 New England 31 27.6, 2 Indianapolis 28 24.8
71% 20 Jacksonville 24 23.1, 22 Cleveland 20 20.8
69% 17 Tampa Bay 21 22.3, 28 San Francisco 0 20.1
69% 4 Philadelphia 27 28.0, 10 New York Giants 17 25.1
63% 24 Dallas 35 26.7, 25 Detroit 19 24.7
62% 6 Green Bay 31 23.8, 13 Minnesota 3 22.6
35% 16 Chicago 16 20.3, 15 Miami 0 22.3
17% 31 Buffalo 49 19.5, 21 Cincinnati 31 25.1
8% 23 Washington 19 16.8, 3 Tennessee 16 27.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 5 1.22 3 1.34 6 0.97 2 0.54 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 13 12.5 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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