prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 3 Pittsburgh 23 29.0, 27 Cincinnati 7 15.9
92% 5 New Orleans 31 30.7, 29 St. Louis 13 16.9
91% 8 Atlanta 31 26.1, 30 Carolina 10 17.5
85% 4 San Diego 31 29.4, 14 Kansas City 0 21.4
83% 6 Philadelphia 30 29.8, 22 Dallas 27 24.4
83% 1 New England 36 27.0, 12 Chicago 7 21.2
76% 7 Baltimore 34 24.7, 16 Houston 28 21.6
74% 17 Jacksonville 38 24.1, 21 Oakland 31 20.9
66% 26 San Francisco 40 20.8, 24 Seattle 21 19.0
63% 10 New York Giants 21 24.3, 15 Minnesota 3 22.9
61% 19 Tampa Bay 17 21.2, 23 Washington 16 20.2
43% 11 Indianapolis 30 23.7, 13 Tennessee 28 24.1
42% 32 Arizona 43 26.0, 28 Denver 13 26.5
38% 25 Buffalo 13 21.4, 20 Cleveland 6 22.6
14% 18 Miami 10 18.2, 9 New York Jets 6 24.4
10% 31 Detroit 7 19.2, 2 Green Bay 3 30.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 4 1.19 2 1.34 4 0.89 4 0.82 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 12.2 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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