prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 2 San Diego 34 28.2, 23 San Francisco 7 16.2
90% 4 Atlanta 34 27.6, 26 Seattle 18 19.1
87% 9 Indianapolis 34 29.0, 17 Jacksonville 24 21.6
86% 1 New England 31 29.0, 6 Green Bay 27 21.7
83% 21 Oakland 39 27.0, 27 Denver 23 21.7
79% 12 Tennessee 31 26.2, 16 Houston 17 21.9
77% 19 Kansas City 27 23.5, 31 St. Louis 13 19.8
75% 22 Dallas 33 26.1, 24 Washington 30 22.6
64% 8 Baltimore 30 24.5, 5 New Orleans 24 22.8
55% 32 Carolina 19 23.0, 29 Arizona 12 22.6
39% 7 Philadelphia 38 26.1, 10 New York Giants 31 27.2
38% 15 Chicago 40 19.5, 18 Minnesota 14 20.7
33% 28 Cincinnati 19 19.8, 20 Cleveland 17 21.8
14% 11 New York Jets 22 17.3, 3 Pittsburgh 17 23.6
12% 25 Buffalo 17 18.2, 13 Miami 14 25.5
9% 30 Detroit 23 18.3, 14 Tampa Bay 20 27.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.81 4 0.39 3 1.30 6 0.77 2 0.54 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 12.4 0.80
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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