prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 8 Atlanta 31 28.1, 32 Carolina 10 13.9
90% 6 Baltimore 13 26.8, 23 Cincinnati 7 15.3
90% 1 New England 38 31.0, 19 Miami 7 17.0
89% 3 San Diego 33 31.1, 29 Denver 28 20.7
88% 11 New York Jets 38 25.8, 26 Buffalo 7 17.0
85% 2 Pittsburgh 41 23.3, 22 Cleveland 9 15.8
82% 9 Indianapolis 23 27.1, 13 Tennessee 20 21.8
81% 10 New York Giants 17 25.7, 24 Washington 14 20.7
81% 5 Green Bay 10 25.0, 12 Chicago 3 19.1
77% 25 San Francisco 38 24.6, 28 Arizona 7 21.0
69% 30 Seattle 16 22.6, 31 St. Louis 6 20.2
67% 16 Houston 34 26.9, 17 Jacksonville 17 24.9
33% 27 Detroit 20 21.7, 20 Minnesota 13 23.8
26% 18 Oakland 31 22.0, 14 Kansas City 10 24.8
16% 15 Tampa Bay 23 21.1, 7 New Orleans 13 27.9
12% 21 Dallas 14 23.6, 4 Philadelphia 13 33.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 3 0.99 2 0.66 11 0.95 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 13.0 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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