2011 Week 1 (8-12 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 77%   7 New York Jets           27 28.0,    15 Dallas                  24 18.6
 77%   5 San Diego               24 28.2,    14 Minnesota               17 18.7
 71%   8 Philadelphia            31 28.8,    32 St. Louis               13 16.9
 67%   1 New England             38 28.7,    17 Miami                   24 19.9
 66%   3 Green Bay               42 30.5,     9 New Orleans             34 23.2
 64%  27 San Francisco           33 23.2,    31 Seattle                 17 18.9
 56%   4 Baltimore               35 21.5,     2 Pittsburgh               7 18.7
 52%  13 Chicago                 30 22.6,    10 Atlanta                 12 22.4
 51%  19 Cincinnati              27 20.3,    22 Cleveland               17 20.2

 47%  30 Arizona                 28 21.9,    24 Carolina                21 22.3
 45%  20 Jacksonville            16 21.9,    12 Tennessee               14 22.9
 44%  23 Oakland                 23 22.8,    28 Denver                  20 25.4
 44%  21 Washington              28 21.4,    11 New York Giants         14 23.9
 44%  18 Houston                 34 24.4,     6 Indianapolis             7 28.7
 41%  25 Buffalo                 41 20.4,    26 Kansas City              7 23.4
 24%  29 Detroit                 27 19.0,    16 Tampa Bay               20 27.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                9 0.61   3 1.52   4 0.99   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   9   9.9 0.91

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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